# CENO ## Posts - [Pakistan’s Agricultural Might: From National Breadbasket to Global Supplier](https://ceno.org.uk/pakistan-agriculture-potential-exports-policy/): Reading Time: 7 minutesPakistan’s greatest economic strength may not lie beneath its soil, but in the soil itself. From the irrigated plains of Punjab and Sindh to the fruit belts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the mountain valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan and the Arabian Sea coast, Pakistan can produce temperate, subtropical and tropical crops; grain, fruit, fibre, livestock, seafood and high-value horticulture within one national territory. This is not simply romantic language about an “agricultural country.” Agriculture contributes approximately 23.4 per cent of GDP and 33.1 per cent of national employment. Of 77.2 million employed people, roughly 25.5 million work directly in […] - [Koh-i-Noor Diamond: The Mountain of Light and the Throne of Lahore](https://ceno.org.uk/koh-i-noor-diamond-pakistan-claim/): Reading Time: 7 minutesA Stone Older Than Any Modern Border The Koh-i-Noor is usually described as an Indian diamond, and the description misleads. When the stone was mined, probably at Kollur in the Deccan, no state called India existed. There was no Indian passport, flag, constitution or citizenship. There was a vast subcontinent of competing kingdoms, sultanates and empires, with shifting frontiers and overlapping loyalties. “India” in the modern sense is a creation of the twentieth century, born at independence in 1947. For Pakistan’s advocates, this is the starting point. Any claim that the diamond belongs to the modern Republic of […] - [A Turning Point: The Gulf Reorders Itself, and Pakistan Moves to the Centre](https://ceno.org.uk/makkah-joint-defence-agreement-pakistan-centre/): Reading Time: 7 minutesFor eighty years, the security of the Middle East ran through Washington. Gulf monarchies bought American arms and hosted American bases, and in return they assumed the guarantee would hold when it counted. Today that assumption is being retired. What is taking its place is a regional order built by the region’s own powers, with Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia at its core. The end of the guarantor The war on Iran made the case more forcefully than any argument could. When the US-Israeli campaign began, it was not Washington’s partners who set about containing it. It was […] - [Architects of an Illusion: Israel and the Mirage of "The New Middle East"](https://ceno.org.uk/israel-and-the-mirage-of-the-new-middle-east/): Reading Time: 7 minutesFor decades, Israeli geopolitical strategy aimed to transform Tel Aviv into the non-negotiable economic, technological and security core of a restructured Middle East. By leapfrogging the Palestinian question through economic diplomacy, transnational infrastructure corridors and bilateral normalisation accords, Israeli policymakers sought to reorder the region’s geoeconomic architecture. However, the real-world trajectories of regional integration have sharply diverged from this hub-and-spoke blueprint. Rather than embedding Israel as an indispensable transit hub, the geopolitical shocks following October 2023 and subsequent regional escalations, including the war on Iran launched by the United States and Israel on 28 February 2026 and the […] - [Student Protests: Europe’s Young Generation Losing Confidence In The Future](https://ceno.org.uk/student-protests-europes-young-generation-losing-confidence-in-the-future/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIn five weeks, a revolt that began with teenagers dragging rubbish bins across school gates in a Paris suburb has become a continental movement. Pupils are blockading lycées in France, pitching tents in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol and Athens’ Syntagma Square, throwing bricks at a ministry in Tirana and occupying schools in Turin. The causes differ by country, and Alberto Alemanno, a professor of EU law at HEC Paris, cautions that the protests are multifaceted rather than ‘one phenomenon’. Yet the complaint running through many of them is similar: the bargain that promised their parents a decent education, […] - [The Last Open Pulpit: Kashmir's Friday Sermon Row and the Kashmiri Muslim Fight Over Preserving the Right to Exist](https://ceno.org.uk/the-last-open-pulpit-kashmirs-friday-sermon-row-and-the-kashmiri-muslim-fight-over-preserving-the-right-to-exist/): Reading Time: 7 minutesFor many Kashmiri Muslims, Friday is the one hour of the week that still belongs to them. The mosque fills, the imam stands, and a community that has had little say over its own affairs hears its fears and its faith spoken aloud by someone it trusts. When the Jammu and Kashmir Waqf Board floated a plan to coordinate what is said from its pulpits, it did not read as an administrative tidy-up. It read as an attempt to reach into the last room that was still theirs. The plan has been disowned, at least in words. The […] - [Achilles Shield: Greece Buys Into Israel's War Economy, and Türkiye Is Watching](https://ceno.org.uk/achilles-shield-greece-buys-into-israels-war-economy-and-turkiye-is-watching/): Reading Time: 7 minutesOn 31 August 2026, officials from Israel and Greece signed an air-defence agreement in Israel that Israel’s ministry called the largest defence export deal in the history of the two countries’ relations. Israel’s Ministry of Defence director general, Amir Baram, and his Greek counterpart, Ioannis Bouras, put their names to a government-to-government contract worth roughly €3bn ($3.5bn). It is a layered air-defence network built around Israeli missile, radar and command-and-control systems. Athens calls it “Achilles Shield.” Israel calls it a milestone for its arms industry. The deal is presented as a neutral piece of modern procurement, a Mediterranean […] - [Beijing’s Non-Recognition of the Union Territory of Ladakh: India–China Cartographic Contestation Deepens](https://ceno.org.uk/beijings-non-recognition-of-the-union-territory-of-ladakh-india-china-cartographic-contestation-deepens/): Reading Time: 7 minutesChina says it has never recognised the Union Territory of Ladakh and has called India’s decision to standardise 28 place names there “illegal and invalid”. Beijing’s foreign ministry responded on 13 October, eleven days after India’s Ministry of Home Affairs placed the names on official Survey of India maps. India’s Standardisation of 28 Place Names in Ladakh On 2 October, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said the Centre, in consultation with the Union Territory of Ladakh, had identified 28 places and features “by standard place and feature names on the official map of Survey of India”. The […] - [Mehrgarh: The Cradle Before the Cities](https://ceno.org.uk/mehrgarh-the-cradle-before-the-cities/): Reading Time: 7 minutesAn Unlikely Discovery on the Kachi Plain In 1974, a French archaeological team led by Jean-François Jarrige and Catherine Jarrige began excavating a site at the foot of the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, Pakistan. They could scarcely have known they were uncovering one of the most important prehistoric sites in South Asia. The Mehrgarh archaeological site, on the Kachi Plain beside the Bolan River, preserves a long record of human settlement from around 7000 BCE to about 2600 BCE: more than four thousand years of transition from early farming villages towards the threshold of urban life. Before Mehrgarh, […] - [India’s SIR Voter Purge Explained: 130 Million Removed, Muslims Hit Hardest](https://ceno.org.uk/indias-voter-roll-purge-130-million-names-removed/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIndia’s biggest electoral-roll overhaul is now a national political crisis. Protesters have taken to the streets, the Supreme Court has demanded answers, and millions of people removed from the rolls are waiting to learn whether they can get back on them. The scale of the purge The exercise is called the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). According to an AFP report, the register held about 970 million names before the overhaul, and more than 130 million have been removed. The reported breakdown is over 20 million entries classed as dead voters and another 90 million classed as absent, relocated […] - [Moscow Format on Afghanistan: Russia Praises the Taliban While Terrorism Concerns Go Unanswered](https://ceno.org.uk/moscow-format-afghanistan-russia-taliban-terrorism/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe eighth Moscow Format meeting on Afghanistan was meant to showcase regional coordination. Instead it exposed how divided Afghanistan’s neighbours are on the Taliban and on terrorism. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s opening remarks drew as much attention for what he left out as for what he said. The summit ended without a joint statement, and the dispute between Kabul and Islamabad overshadowed it. What happened at the eighth Moscow Format meeting The meeting took place in Moscow on 5 October 2026. Representatives from Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan attended, with Belarus […] - [Bangladesh built a power system to end shortages. Why is it still short of power?](https://ceno.org.uk/bangladesh-power-shortage-fuel-money/): Reading Time: 7 minutesOn 20 May, Bangladesh generated more electricity than ever before: 17,200 MW at 9pm. Even then, around 400 MW of demand went unmet, meaning the country was producing a record amount of electricity and still had load-shedding. The country’s installed capacity is reportedly 28,494 MW. A system that can produce 28 gigawatts, manages 17 at its best and still cuts power is not short of power stations. It is short of the fuel to run them. And it is short of the money to pay for that fuel. A system built in a hurry When the Awami League […] - [Is Britain Heading for War? Fairford and the War Book](https://ceno.org.uk/is-britain-heading-for-war-fairford-and-the-war-book/): Reading Time: 7 minutesBritain is not heading for war in the conventional sense. There has been no declaration and no mobilisation, and no minister, military chief or intelligence agency has stated that an attack is imminent. The more precise concern is that Britain has become an exposed rear area of a wider regional conflict: a territory whose bases, communities and infrastructure can be affected by a war it is not formally fighting. The central security problem is therefore not an invasion scenario. It is the gradual erosion of peace through accumulated incidents, each of which falls short of an act of […] - [Afghanistan’s Terrorism Ecosystem: How Taliban Rule Is Sustaining a Regional Security Threat](https://ceno.org.uk/afghanistan-terrorism-ecosystem-taliban-rule/): Reading Time: 7 minutesFive years after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Afghanistan remains a significant base of operations, sanctuary and networking for multiple terrorist organisations. The central security problem is not that the Taliban command every militant group operating from Afghan territory. Rather, Afghanistan has developed into a terrorism ecosystem base: a Taliban-controlled territorial environment in which different terrorist organisations obtain varying degrees of sanctuary, logistical space, training, ideological support, recruitment opportunities and operational freedom. The most immediate manifestation of this problem is Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). United Nations reporting has repeatedly identified the TTP as operating from […] - [US–China AI Hotline: What the Trump–Xi Summit Agreed](https://ceno.org.uk/us-china-ai-hotline-what-the-trump-xi-summit-agreed/): Reading Time: 7 minutesFollowing the bilateral summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Washington and Beijing have announced an agreement to launch a dedicated dialogue on artificial intelligence (AI), which the White House terms the US–China Super Intelligence Dialogue. Alongside it, both governments have agreed to establish a bilateral communication channel for AI-related incidents. The move reflects a growing, shared recognition that the intense race for technological dominance could inadvertently spark a crisis that neither side can contain. With the next exchange scheduled for November, the AI hotline marks one of the most significant steps towards technological […] - [The Politics of Erasure: Institutional Audits, Banned Books, and the Suppression of Dissent in Indian-Occupied Kashmir](https://ceno.org.uk/the-politics-of-erasure-institutional-audits-banned-books-and-the-suppression-of-dissent-in-indian-occupied-kashmir/): Reading Time: 7 minutesAn unprecedented ideological and administrative purge is unfolding across Indian-occupied Kashmir, threatening the foundations of intellectual autonomy and historical preservation. Recent data tabled in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly reveals that authorities have scrutinized a staggering 2,181,582 books and publications across college libraries, public repositories, and educational institutions. Under the official guise of eliminating objectionable, anti-national, and secessionist material, the state has already pulled 4,812 books from active circulation, including 518 copies of formally banned titles, while forwarding another 1,752 texts for intense, multi-tiered expert evaluation. This sweeping state-driven campaign represents a profound escalation in the systemic control […] - [Weaponizing the Dead: Why Burial Denial Marks a Dangerous Shift in India](https://ceno.org.uk/weaponizing-the-dead-why-burial-denial-marks-a-dangerous-shift-in-india/): Reading Time: 7 minutesAmid the constant noise and near normalising of persecution against religious minorities in India, why does the denial of burial to Christians by villagers in Chhattisgarh—and in pockets elsewhere— stir anger, not just in the wider Christian community but also from ordinary Hindus and Judges on the benches of the Supreme Court? This is not selective outrage of a few, but something profoundly positive, revealing that even in a deeply polarised climate, a basic sense of shared humanity endures. Disrespecting the dead crosses a line that routine violence or social boycott sometimes fails to breach, moving the collective […] - [Pakistan’s Way Forward: A 30-Year National Plan for Prosperity, Security and Social Justice](https://ceno.org.uk/pakistans-way-forward-a-30-year-national-plan-for-prosperity-security-and-social-justice/): Reading Time: 7 minutesPakistan stands at a decisive point in its history. During the next 25 years, our population is expected to increase dramatically and may nearly double. Feeding this expanding population, creating sufficient employment, and providing education, healthcare, housing, water, energy and other essential services will require planning on an unprecedented scale. We cannot wait for these pressures to overwhelm our institutions. Pakistan must immediately prepare, and then consistently implement, a comprehensive 30-year national development plan. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state with an exceptionally important geographical position, abundant natural resources, a large and resilient population, and immense agricultural and industrial […] - [A Sacred Red Line: The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement and the Imperative of Collective Deterrence](https://ceno.org.uk/a-sacred-red-line-the-makkah-joint-defence-agreement-and-the-imperative-of-collective-deterrence/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe security architecture of the Middle East has entered an acutely volatile and unprecedented phase following the latest Houthi aggression directed towards the holiest sanctuary of Islam. On 16 September 2026, coalition air defence systems successfully intercepted an armed unmanned aerial vehicle launched by the Iran-backed militia just prior to its entry into the protected airspace of Makkah. This incident marks a severe and calculated escalation in regional hostilities. It has prompted Saudi authorities to reiterate firmly that the territorial and spiritual integrity of the Two Holy Mosques constitutes an inviolable red line. The brazen nature of this […] - [The Cardiff Memorandum: Constitutional Fallout and the Fracturing of the UK](https://ceno.org.uk/the-cardiff-memorandum-constitutional-fallout-and-the-fracturing-of-the-uk/): Reading Time: 7 minutesOn 14 September 2026, the nationalist leaders of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland convened in Cardiff to sign a historic Memorandum of Understanding. John Swinney of the Scottish National Party, Rhun ap Iorwerth of Plaid Cymru, and Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Féin, alongside Mary Lou McDonald, formally declared that Westminster’s time is coming to an end. This moment is unprecedented. For the first time in history, the First Minister offices in all three devolved administrations are held by leaders committed to exiting the United Kingdom. Although the pact lacks immediate legal force, with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham […] - [Papering Over the Fissures: The Illusion of Consensus in an Expanded BRICS](https://ceno.org.uk/papering-over-the-fissures-the-illusion-of-consensus-in-an-expanded-brics/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe eighteenth BRICS summit closed in New Delhi with a joint declaration in hand, a result that India’s government has presented as a diplomatic triumph. Given that two earlier ministerial meetings this year had failed to produce any agreed text at all, the achievement is not trivial. Yet a closer reading of the New Delhi Declaration, and of the process that produced it, suggests that the bloc’s underlying divisions have not been resolved so much as managed out of the text. Consensus was reached, but largely by avoiding the issues on which members disagree most sharply. A Declaration […] - [From Brotherhood to Rupture: Algeria Severs Ties With the UAE](https://ceno.org.uk/from-brotherhood-to-rupture-algeria-severs-ties-with-the-uae/): Reading Time: 7 minutesOn 10 September 2026, Algeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the severance of diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, summoned UAE Ambassador Yousef Saif Khamis Subaa Al-Ali, and gave him 48 hours to comply with the decision and leave the country. The following day, Algeria’s Defence Ministry confirmed that all UAE-registered civilian and military aircraft would be banned from Algerian airspace with effect from midnight on 11 September 2026, with a transitional exemption permitting commercial flights to and from Algiers airport until the end of the year, when the current bilateral air services agreement expires. Emirates airline […] - [Occupation Cannot Grant Sovereignty: Britain Holds the Line on Israel and the Law](https://ceno.org.uk/occupation-cannot-grant-sovereignty-britain-holds-the-line-on-israel-and-the-law/): Reading Time: 7 minutesOn 8 September 2026, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband delivered the most significant British statement on Israel and Palestine in a generation. Standing at the despatch box as a self-described “proud British Jew,” Miliband announced a comprehensive package of measures: a ban on goods imported from Israeli settlements in the West Bank, sanctions on companies and individuals facilitating settlement expansion, and a refusal to grant licences for arms and exports that materially support what Britain now formally characterises as an “unlawful occupation.” In a moment of considerable political and personal courage, Britain’s most senior Jewish politician looked the Chief […] - [Between China and the US, Who Has the Edge in Bangladesh?](https://ceno.org.uk/between-china-and-the-us-who-has-the-edge-in-bangladesh/): Reading Time: 7 minutesSeven months into Tarique Rahman’s premiership, the clearest illustration of where things stand arrived not from a communiqué but from a press briefing.  On 25 August, Zahed Ur Rahman, the prime minister’s information and broadcasting adviser, said the relevant Bangladeshi procurement committees had prepared draft agreements concerning J-10CE multirole fighters and attack helicopters, which were being circulated to the Armed Forces Division and other ministries for approval. The documents are intended to underpin further engagement with China, not a publicly announced final purchase contract.  A report citing an Armed Forces Division document has put the prospective J-10CE package […] - [Words Without Action: Assessing Burnham's First Six Weeks on Gaza](https://ceno.org.uk/words-without-action-assessing-burnhams-first-six-weeks-on-gaza/): Reading Time: 7 minutesBurnham’s government speaks about Gaza in a markedly different register from its predecessor’s. It has not, so far, acted in one. That gap is the finding here, not a puzzle to explain away. In late July, 80 MPs and peers wrote asking Burnham to recognise the UN Commission of Inquiry’s genocide finding and impose sanctions accordingly. The request was rejected. The arms licensing regime has continued largely unchanged. Against that, one part of government, the Foreign Office under Ed Miliband, is visibly building toward something more, with announcements trailed for this month. The government has not yet changed […] - [The First Priority: Why Secretary-General Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed Must Put Digital Independence at the Top of the OIC's Agenda](https://ceno.org.uk/the-first-priority-oic-digital-independence/): Reading Time: 7 minutesSecretary-General Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed assumes leadership of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation at a moment of acute technological emergency. The fifty-seven member states of the OIC are not merely confronting an economic development gap or a governance deficit. They are operating under a structural condition in which the digital systems governing their communications, their critical infrastructure, and increasingly their physical security are owned, operated, and increasingly their physical security are owned, operated, and, when politically convenient, disabled by foreign powers. This paper is addressed to the incoming Secretary-General and to the OIC’s technical and policy leadership because […] - [The Structural Settlement of Big Tech: Deconstructing Meta’s Historic $18 Billion Youth Addiction Agreement](https://ceno.org.uk/the-structural-settlement-of-big-tech-deconstructing-metas-historic-18-billion-youth-addiction-agreement/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIn a defining moment for modern regulatory governance and digital product liability, Meta Platforms has agreed to a landmark settlement valued at up to $18 billion. The agreement halts a high-stakes federal trial in Oakland, California, brought by a bipartisan coalition of 52 state attorneys general representing nearly every US state and territory. The litigation charged Meta with deliberately designing engagement algorithms to addict young users, misrepresenting safety research to the public, and systematically violating federal privacy protections. As the settlement moves towards final court approval, the case offers a profound case study in the intersection of corporate […] - [Sanctioning the Sangh: USCIRF, the RSS, and the Limits of US-India Strategic Partnership](https://ceno.org.uk/sanctioning-the-sangh-uscirf-the-rss-and-the-limits-of-us-india-strategic-partnership/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe diplomatic standoff between Washington’s independent monitoring mechanisms, local US political leadership, and New Delhi’s foreign policy apparatus reached an unprecedented threshold as Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Chief (Sarsanghchalak) Mohan Bhagwat commenced his multi-nation tour across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Centred on a 29 August address at New York’s Madison Square Garden for the “Universal Oneness Celebration” hosted by the AHEAD Forum, the visit has drawn severe scrutiny from civil rights groups, municipal leadership, and federal oversight panels. On 25 August 2026, the Indian American Muslim Council (IAMC) and allied community and faith organisations […] - [Ghana and the Global Vanguard for Slavery Reparations: From Historical Grievance to Institutional Accountability](https://ceno.org.uk/ghana-and-the-global-vanguard-for-slavery-reparations/): Reading Time: 7 minutesOver the past decade, the international discourse surrounding reparations for the Transatlantic Slave Trade has transitioned from a marginalised intellectual debate into a central tenet of global geopolitical negotiations. At the forefront of this monumental shift is the Republic of Ghana. Leveraging its historical prominence, diplomatic acumen, and pan-African leadership, Ghana has systematically galvanised the African Union (AU) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to demand institutional accountability from Western nations. By transitioning the conversation from symbolic apologies to legally and economically binding reparatory justice, Ghana is seeking a fundamental restructuring of the post-colonial global order. This article examines […] - [The Deal Israel Doesn't Want: How Gaza's Peace Plan Is Fracturing it's Alliances](https://ceno.org.uk/the-deal-israel-doesnt-want-how-gazas-peace-plan-is-fracturing-its-alliances/): Reading Time: 7 minutesUS President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, Jared Kushner, held rare, high-level talks with a Hamas delegation in Egypt on Sunday 17 August, as the US administration intensifies its push to implement the stalled Gaza peace plan. The meetings mark a significant diplomatic manoeuvre aimed at salvaging a sweeping US-backed initiative designed to demilitarise the Palestinian territory and establish a new civilian government. A Palestinian official confirmed that Kushner met with a Hamas delegation led by the group’s new leader, Khalil al-Hayya. The talks are reportedly the highest-level direct engagement of their kind since a landmark ceasefire agreement […] - [Jason Arday: The Tragedy Behind a Public Controversy and What Academia Must Learn](https://ceno.org.uk/jason-arday-the-tragedy-behind-a-public-controversy-and-what-academia-must-learn/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe death of Professor Jason Arday, aged 41, has sent shockwaves through British higher education and sparked a difficult national debate about academic integrity, institutional accountability, racism, media scrutiny and the treatment of public figures under intense pressure. Arday, who became the University of Cambridge’s youngest Black professor in 2023, was found unresponsive at a property in Battersea, south London, on 14 August 2026. The Metropolitan Police said his death was unexpected but was not being treated as suspicious. His death came shortly after he resigned from Cambridge amid intense scrutiny of allegations concerning his academic work and […] - [The Kashmir case: Why the Instrument of Accession was Kept Secret until 2016](https://ceno.org.uk/the-kashmir-case-why-the-instrument-of-accession-was-kept-secret-until-2016/): Reading Time: 7 minutesFor decades, researchers visiting the National Archives of India in New Delhi could consult the Instruments of Accession signed by the rulers of princely states that joined India after the end of British rule in 1947. The documents were there, available for scholars to examine. There was, however, one conspicuous exception: Jammu and Kashmir. The Instrument of Accession attributed to Maharaja Hari Singh, arguably the most consequential of all such documents because it became the legal foundation of India’s claim over Jammu and Kashmir, was not similarly accessible. Its absence generated a mystery that endured for decades. Repeated […] - [The Indispensable Guardian: Pakistan and the Defence of Muslim Sovereignty in South Asia](https://ceno.org.uk/the-indispensable-guardian-pakistan-and-the-defence-of-muslim-sovereignty-in-south-asia/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIn the fractured geopolitical landscape of 2026, a single question has moved from the margins of strategic discourse to its very centre: who speaks for the Muslim world’s sovereign interests when they are threatened by the expansionist ambitions of regional powers? The answer, increasingly, is Pakistan. From the negotiating rooms of Islamabad to the corridors of the United Nations Security Council, Pakistan has emerged not merely as a diplomatic actor but as the indispensable guarantor of strategic autonomy for Muslim-majority states navigating an era of intensifying great-power rivalry, Indian nationalist expansionism, and the weaponisation of religion, water, and […] - [The Gulf Slips Away: How the Makkah Pact Ended India's Decade of Gulf Diplomacy](https://ceno.org.uk/strategic-realignment-in-west-asia-implications-of-the-makkah-joint-defence-agreement-for-indian-security-posture/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe formalisation of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement on 7 August 2026 marks a pivotal structural shift in the security architecture of West Asia and South Asia. Signed in the holy city of Makkah by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the trilateral security arrangement introduces a binding collective deterrence framework that considers an armed attack against any one of the three states as an attack against all, and importantly it appears to encompass armed attacks from non-state actors and proxy networks. Whilst the primary geopolitical motivation […] - [The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement: The Rise of a New Islamic Security Bloc](https://ceno.org.uk/the-makkah-joint-defence-agreement-the-rise-of-a-new-islamic-security-bloc/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe formalisation of a trilateral defence agreement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Republic of Türkiye and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on 7 August 2026 marks a watershed moment in Middle Eastern and South Asian security architectures. Signed in Jeddah by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the treaty represents a profound pivot away from traditional reliance on Western security guarantees. Driven by escalating regional volatility, particularly the recent conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, this agreement creates a new centre of gravity in the geopolitics […] - [July Revolution: Beyond Hopes and Disappointments](https://ceno.org.uk/july-revolution-beyond-hopes-and-disappointments/): Reading Time: 7 minutesTwo years after the student-led people’s uprising dismantled the fifteen-year autocracy of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh finds itself navigating the complex realities of structural recalibration. The euphoric aftermath of August 2024, baptized by its architects as the “July Revolution”, promised an immediate democratic renaissance. Yet as the initial revolutionary dust settles across the streets of Dhaka, the nation’s political trajectory demonstrates a far more dispassionate truth: revolutions rarely deliver clean breaks; instead, they recalibrate power, national sovereignty, and strategic alignment in an unsparing geopolitical arena. The fall of the Awami League regime was not merely a domestic collapse; it […] - [Indian Arms Exports to Israel : Examining Amnesty International’s Report on India as an essential weapon manufacturing node for genocide in Gaza.](https://ceno.org.uk/indian-arms-exports-to-israel/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIn July 2026, Amnesty International published a comprehensive 42-page investigative report titled “Made in India: The Supply of Weapons and Ammunition to Israel.” The document delivers a detailed, data-driven reconstruction of how India has evolved into an essential manufacturing node in Israel’s weapon supply chain during the genocide in Gaza. Drawing upon shipment-level customs registries, export records, maritime manifests, and corporate filings, the human rights organisation argues that India’s continued authorisation and transfer of military hardware to Tel Aviv places the nation at serious risk of legal complicity in war crimes, crimes against humanity, and violations of the […] - [The Crucible of Climate Change: Assessing Nepal's Unique Vulnerabilities and Livelihood Shocks](https://ceno.org.uk/the-crucible-of-climate-change-assessing-nepals-unique-vulnerabilities-and-livelihood-shocks/): Reading Time: 7 minutesGlobal greenhouse gas emissions are driving unprecedented environmental shifts, transforming localised weather patterns and placing intense pressure on vital livelihood resources. Whilst climate change is a global phenomenon, its impacts are profoundly unequal. Developing nations with complex topographies bear the heaviest burden, and national-level scientific studies consistently prove that Nepal is one of the worst sufferers of climate change globally. Despite contributing a negligible fraction to global greenhouse gas emissions, Nepal ranks as the fourth most vulnerable country to climate change in the world. The country operates on the frontlines of the crisis, where shifting environmental baselines act […] - [The Houthi Militia: From Local Insurgency to Regional Power](https://ceno.org.uk/the-houthi-militia-from-local-insurgency-to-regional-power/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe announcement by Yemen’s Houthi movement that it has imposed a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in the current Iran-US war represents more than another escalation in Yemen’s long-running conflict. It is a strategic signal aimed not only at Riyadh but also at Washington, Tehran’s rivals, and the global energy market. By threatening maritime routes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints, the Houthis are attempting to transform their position from a Yemeni armed faction into a regional actor capable of influencing international trade and security calculations. The declaration comes after renewed […] - [The Indian Ocean in the Era of Great-Power Competition: Reassessing the Strategic Impact of Extra-Regional Actors on Regional Stability](https://ceno.org.uk/the-indian-ocean-in-the-era-of-great-power-competition-reassessing-the-strategic-impact-of-extra-regional-actors-on-regional-stability/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe Indian Ocean has emerged as one of the most consequential geopolitical theatres of the twenty-first century. Stretching from the eastern coast of Africa to the western Pacific through the Strait of Malacca, it connects some of the world’s fastest-growing economies while carrying nearly 80 per cent of global seaborne oil trade and a substantial share of international container shipping. Its maritime chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Malacca, serve as strategic arteries linking the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Consequently, any disruption in these waters has immediate repercussions for global […] - [Somaliland and the Middle Eastern Divide](https://ceno.org.uk/somaliland-and-the-middle-eastern-divide/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe Horn of Africa has rapidly transitioned from a peripheral maritime flank into a primary battleground for Middle Eastern proxy competition. The core of this friction lies in a concerted attempt by specific actors to embed a structural divide within the region by weaponising Somaliland’s separatist ambitions. This strategy of fragmentation threatens to destabilise the entire Red Sea corridor. At the centre of this geopolitical storm is the undeniable and widening rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. While Riyadh seeks structural stability to secure its maritime trade routes, Abu Dhabi has increasingly opted for a […] - [Redefining the "Ceasefire": Navigating the Post-Iran War Volatility](https://ceno.org.uk/redefining-the-ceasefire-navigating-the-post-iran-war-volatility/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe regional security apparatus following the intense hostilities of the 2026 Iran War has birthed a highly precarious definition of the modern ceasefire. While formal agreements like the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum are technically holding, the reality on the ground is characterised by regular, low-intensity skirmishes and calculated proxy engagements. This volatile new paradigm demonstrates that ceasefires are no longer definitive endpoints to conflict. Instead, they have evolved into weaponised tactical pauses where belligerents reposition assets and engage in grey-zone warfare without triggering full-scale conventional retaliation. The Illusion of Peace and Tactical Pauses The traditional binary between war […] - [Expansionist Afghanistan: Neutralising the Irredentist Threat](https://ceno.org.uk/expansionist-afghanistan-neutralising-the-irredentist-threat/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe evolving security dynamics along the Durand Line require a highly calibrated and analytical response to the increasingly hostile posture adopted by the interim administration in Kabul. The recent surge in cross-border militant violence, dramatically underscored by the June 2026 assault on a paramilitary Rangers compound in Karachi, Pakistan, reveals a dangerous escalation in state-tolerated proxy warfare. Coupled with incendiary rhetoric from Afghan cabinet ministers threatening Pakistani territory, it is evident that the Taliban leadership is actively utilizing an irredentist narrative to navigate its own internal crises. The Mechanics of Cross-Border Escalation The Karachi attack, claimed by the […] - [The Unpopular War: An Analysis of the 2026 Iran Conflict’s Historic Unpopularity](https://ceno.org.uk/the-unpopular-war-an-analysis-of-the-2026-iran-conflicts-historic-unpopularity/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe military engagement between the United States and Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, under the banner of Operation Epic Fury, has fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Yet, perhaps more notably, it has shattered all modern precedents regarding domestic support for American military intervention. By June 2026, analysts have reached a somber consensus: this is the most unpopular war in United States history. A Conflict Born in “Negative Territory” In American political discourse, a war is considered “under water” when its net approval rating (the percentage of public support minus the percentage of public […] - [The Islamabad Memorandum: A New Paradigm for Middle Power Diplomacy](https://ceno.org.uk/the-islamabad-memorandum-a-new-paradigm-for-middle-power-diplomacy/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 17 June 2026 marks a watershed moment in contemporary geopolitics. By facilitating a ceasefire between the United States and Iran to halt a conflict that threatened global economic stability, Pakistan has transitioned from a peripheral player to a pivotal mediator. This agreement, whilst interim in nature, represents a significant recalibration of influence in the Global South. The Real Victor: Diplomacy Over Deterrence To characterise the Islamabad MoU as a “victory” for any single nation is to miss the fundamental shift it represents. The agreement serves as a hard-won […] - [Repositioning in the Post-Galwan Era: From Continental Balancing to Global Diplomatic Centrality](https://ceno.org.uk/repositioning-in-the-post-galwan-era-from-continental-balancing-to-global-diplomatic-centrality/): Reading Time: 7 minutes The geopolitical landscape of South Asia has undergone a profound structural transformation. While the June 2020 Sino-Indian clash in the Galwan Valley established a new strategic reality along the Himalayan frontier, developments throughout 2026 have fundamentally altered Pakistan’s regional and international position. India’s unilateral constitutional and cartographic changes concerning Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh strengthened Sino-Pakistani strategic cooperation, but subsequent geopolitical developments have reshaped the broader balance of power. Relations between the United States and India have deteriorated owing to trade disputes, sanctions linked to Russian oil imports, tighter immigration measures and diplomatic tensions following the deaths of […] - [Water as a Weapon: How India's Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Threatens South Asia's Future](https://ceno.org.uk/water-as-a-weapon-how-indias-suspension-of-the-indus-waters-treaty-threatens-south-asias-future/): Reading Time: 7 minutesEditorial Note: This article was published in June 2026. On the 31st of August 2026, the Court of Arbitration issued a further Award on the Status of the Indus Waters Treaty, again affirming the treaty remains in force, alongside interim measures on the Ratle Hydro-Electric Plant. India has rejected this ruling as well, maintaining its earlier position that the tribunal lacks jurisdiction. This note reflects that development; the analysis below has not been otherwise updated. A Treaty in Abeyance The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered in 1960, is a foundational international agreement that serves as the lifeblood for […] - [Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock: Kazakhstan’s Strategic Leverage in the US–Iran Ceasefire Negotiations](https://ceno.org.uk/breaking-the-nuclear-deadlock-kazakhstans-strategic-leverage-in-the-us-iran-ceasefire-negotiations/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe current phase of back-channel diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran has reached a critical juncture, with the final disposition of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile emerging as the primary obstacle to a sustainable regional settlement. Following the military operations conducted by a joint United States and Israeli coalition against major Iranian nuclear sites, a fragile truce has taken hold in Western Asia. Whilst these air strikes caused extensive structural damage to installations across the country, subsequent intelligence assessments and international oversight bodies have confirmed that Iran’s physical inventory of enriched material survived the bombardment largely intact. This […] - [Bhan Singh's List: Recording the Sikh genocide of June 1984](https://ceno.org.uk/recording-the-sikh-genocide-of-june-1984/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe June 1984 Indian military assault on the Sikh religion’s most sacred place of worship, the Golden Temple complex, Sri Harimandar Sahib and Akal Takht Sahib, stands as a monumental watershed in modern Sikh and Indian history. This historical event exposed a profound rift between state-mandated narrative and collective trauma. The Indian government classified the assault as “Operation Bluestar,” framed as a “necessary measure” to “stabilise Punjab and suppress terrorism.” In stark contrast, the Sikh community remembers the assault as a Ghallughara (massacre), a term deeply embedded in the Sikh psyche, signifying a large-scale massacre which amounted to […] - [Eid, Faith, Systematic Fear: The Shrinking space for Muslim festivals in India](https://ceno.org.uk/eid-faith-systematic-fear-the-shrinking-space-for-muslim-festivals-in-india/): Reading Time: 7 minutesFor millions of Muslims across India, the arrival of Eid ul-Adha should be a season of profound spiritual devotion, communal charity, and familial gathering. The core religious rite involves Qurbani, the ritual sacrifice of livestock to commemorate Prophet Ibrahim’s obedience to God, with the meat distributed among family, neighbours, and impoverished communities. Yet, in contemporary India, the weeks leading up to the festival have become a period of acute anxiety, economic isolation, and imminent threat of physical violence. The intersection of state-backed legislative crackdowns, aggressive cow politics, and unchecked majoritarian vigilante violence has effectively transformed this sacred tradition […] - [TWO MILESTONES IN HISTORY: Pakistan’s Nuclear tests - and the Conquest of Constantinople](https://ceno.org.uk/two-milestones-in-history-pakistans-nuclear-tests-and-the-conquest-of-constantinople/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe month of May has been important in history. On 28 May 1998, Pakistan became a nuclear power, the first and only country in the Muslim world to attain this status. Pakistan was constrained to conduct the tests after India carried out its provocative nuclear tests. This also needs to be noted in the context of 1971. On 29 May 1453, more than six hundred years ago, a Muslim army entered Constantinople (Istanbul), the capital of the Byzantine Empire. The city had been built by Emperor Constantine as his capital in 330 AD. Prophet Muhammad (ﷺ), in the […] - [At the Edge of an Arms Race: The Limits of the NPT Review Process](https://ceno.org.uk/at-the-edge-of-an-arms-race-the-limits-of-the-npt-review-process/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe forthcoming review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) convenes at a flashpoint for the global nuclear order. Once known as the bedrock of international security, the treaty is buckling under the weight of geopolitical rivalries and rapid technological shifts. With the world’s total nuclear inventory hovering around 12,100 warheads, expectations that this conference can halt a budding arms race must be tempered. Its realistic function is not a grand breakthrough, but rather damage control, slowing the deterioration of a fragile global baseline. The most immediate threat is the collapse of bilateral arms control between the United […] - [Can Pakistan Save Us From World War 3?](https://ceno.org.uk/can-pakistan-save-us-from-world-war-3/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIt doesn’t take too much catastrophising to imagine a scenario where the America/Israel/Iran situation spirals rapidly downwards into a global conflict: if President Trump follows through on his threat to destroy Iran’s whole civilisation, China might see an existential threat to its energy supplies and Russia might see an opportunity to cause more mischief. India and Europe would find it difficult to avoid being drawn in and suddenly the world’s major powers are at war. But it’s Pakistan who has stepped in and offered an opportunity to save us from this nightmare by holding and facilitating talks between […] - [Militant Hindutva as a Form of Extremism](https://ceno.org.uk/militant-hindutva-as-a-form-of-extremism/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe communal violence that unfolded in Leicester in 2022 marked a turning point in discussions about extremism, diaspora politics, and social cohesion in the United Kingdom. Long regarded as a model of multicultural coexistence, the city witnessed unprecedented clashes between sections of its Hindu and Muslim communities. In 2026, a major independent inquiry led by researchers from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) and the London School of Economics (LSE) Better Together: Understanding the 2022 Violence in Leicester, reignited debate by recommending that the UK should formally recognise “militant Hindutva” as a form of extremism. The […] - [The Rise of Islamophobia in the UK: Media, Politics, and Social Division](https://ceno.org.uk/the-rise-of-islamophobia-in-the-uk-media-politics-and-social-division/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIslamophobia is no longer a marginal issue in British society. It has become an increasingly visible and deeply entrenched form of prejudice that affects millions of Muslims across the United Kingdom. Defined as hostility, fear, discrimination, or hatred directed towards Islam or Muslims, Islamophobia manifests through verbal abuse, physical violence, workplace discrimination, online harassment, biased media narratives, and institutional exclusion. In recent years, anti-Muslim hatred in Britain has reached alarming levels, driven by political polarisation, inflammatory rhetoric, misinformation, and the fallout from international events such as the ongoing genocide in Gaza. The growing normalisation of Islamophobia presents a […] - [The Invisible Crisis: The Vulnerability of the Indus Basin Aquifer](https://ceno.org.uk/the-invisible-crisis-the-vulnerability-of-the-indus-basin-aquifer/): Reading Time: 7 minutesThe Indus Basin, often termed the “lifeline” of Pakistan, is shifting from a state of water stress to absolute scarcity. While surface water fluctuations in the Indus River attract significant political and media attention, the Indus Basin Aquifer, a vast, transboundary reservoir of groundwater, is facing a silent, existential threat. This aquifer provides over 90% of the country’s domestic water, 50% of its agricultural needs, and nearly all of its industrial requirements. As of 2026, the reliance on this “underground savings account” has reached a breaking point. The lack of a cohesive regulatory framework, combined with climate-driven hydrologic […] - [Hate Speech Against Muslims and Christians in India’s Political Landscape](https://ceno.org.uk/hate-speech-against-muslims-and-christians-in-indias-political-landscape/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIndia’s constitutional framework is founded on secularism, pluralism, and equal citizenship. Yet over the past decade, political discourse surrounding religious identity has become increasingly polarised. Hate speech directed at religious minorities, especially Muslims and Christians, has emerged as a major concern for scholars, civil society organisations, journalists, and international observers. The issue is no longer confined to fringe groups or isolated incidents; it increasingly intersects with electoral mobilisation, digital propaganda, and mainstream political rhetoric. The debate over hate speech in India is complex because it sits at the intersection of democratic free speech, religious nationalism, and electoral politics. […] - [The Hydro-Geopolitical Chessboard: The Teesta River Dispute, China’s Ingress, and India’s Strategic Dilemma](https://ceno.org.uk/the-hydro-geopolitical-chessboard-the-teesta-river-dispute-chinas-ingress-and-indias-strategic-dilemma/): Reading Time: 7 minutesTransboundary rivers have historically served as the lifelines of human civilisation, yet in modern South Asia, they increasingly function as arenas of intense geopolitical competition. The long-festering dispute over the Teesta River between India and Bangladesh serves as a prime case study of how a localised, upper-versus-lower riparian resource conflict can mutate into a trilateral security dilemma. As Bangladesh navigates a pivotal transition in its political landscape following the structural upheavals of late 2024 and its formal graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026, the management of its water resources has moved far beyond the purview […] - [The Architecture of a Manufactured Threat: Inside the Elite-Led Campaign Against American Muslims](https://ceno.org.uk/the-architecture-of-a-manufactured-threat-inside-the-elite-led-campaign-against-american-muslims/): Reading Time: 7 minutesIn the modern media landscape, hate speech often appears decentralized, a sprawling web of anonymous internet trolls and fringe forums. However, a ground-breaking investigative report published by the Centre for the Study of Organized Hate (CSOH), titled “Manufacturing the Muslim Threat in America,” challenges this assumption. Released on the 21st of April, 2026, the comprehensive report meticulously maps how a highly coordinated anti-Muslim campaign was engineered, sustained, and institutionalised over a thirteen-month period. Far from being a bottom-up phenomenon, the report demonstrates that this recent wave of Islamophobia was actively built from the top down by elite political […] - [The Battle for Bangladesh’s Soul: A Four-Way Struggle for a National Slogan](https://ceno.org.uk/the-battle-for-bangladeshs-soul-a-four-way-struggle-for-a-national-slogan/): Reading Time: 7 minutesBangladesh finds itself at historical, ideological, and rhetorical crossroads, caught in a profound schism over the adoption of a definitive national slogan. Far from a mere dispute over semantics or state branding, the contemporary debate has crystallized into a high-stakes confrontation between four competing, deeply entrenched ideologies. In this volatile theatre of political discourse, each phrase serves as a vessel for a distinct vision of the future. These ranges of vision span from the preservation of the constitutional, Westphalian status quo to various forms of radical irredentism, the impulse to redefine, reclaim, or annex territory based on shared […] - [Maritime Chokepoints and Global Vulnerability: From the Suez Blockage to the 2026 Hormuz Crisis](https://ceno.org.uk/maritime-chokepoints-and-global-vulnerability-from-the-suez-blockage-to-the-2026-hormuz-crisis/): Reading Time: 7 minutesMaritime chokepoints are the narrow arteries through which the lifeblood of the global economy flows. These critical passages, whether natural straits or man-made canals, handle a disproportionate share of global trade, energy shipments, and strategic naval movement. While often overlooked in everyday discourse, their importance becomes starkly visible when disruption occurs. Events such as the 2021 Ever Given grounding in the Suez Canal and the 2026 conflict in the Strait of Hormuz illustrate just how fragile and interconnected global supply chains truly are. A Global Network of Chokepoints The Strait of Hormuz is just one of several critical […] ## Pages - [Team](https://ceno.org.uk/team/): Reading Time: 7 minutes - [Events](https://ceno.org.uk/events/): Reading Time: 7 minutes - [Quick Bytes](https://ceno.org.uk/quick-bytes/): Reading Time: 7 minutes - [Policy Reports](https://ceno.org.uk/policy-briefs/): Reading Time: 7 minutes - [Editorial Standards](https://ceno.org.uk/editorial-standards/): Reading Time: 7 minutesAt CENO, our credibility is our most valuable asset. As a premier geopolitical think tank, we are committed to producing research, video analysis, and commentary that meet the highest standards of academic rigor and journalistic integrity. 1. 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